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FBALL.DOC
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Text File
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1988-08-03
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11KB
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242 lines
FBALL - A FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING
COMPUTER PROGRAM
by D. Stoltz
Compuserve #70535,1157
704 W. Fremont St.
Fostoria, OH 44830
FBALL.COM predicts the outcome of college football games with the aid of a
large data base built up over a season or more. The user is required to
enter the line (points) weekly, and to enter the scores following the games.
The prediction method carries the theory of 'like opponents' to its ultimate
conclusion. That theory relies on analysis of opponents that both teams
involved in a game have previously played. If the first team beat the like
opponent by 14 points and the second team only won by 3 points, you might
conclude that the first team should beat the second by about 10 points.
Obviously, at the beginning of the season there will be a distinct lack of
like opponents available for comparison. However, there may be one team that
has played the first team and another team that has played the second team who
have also played each other. A 'thread' of scores between the first team
and the second team will be established. For example, examine the following
'thread':
ALABAMA* - GEORGIA : 21 - 14
GEORGIA - WAKE FOREST* : 35 - 9
WAKE FOREST - CLEMSON* : 3 - 17
Here Alabama vs. Clemson is the game we are trying to predict. The asterisk
denotes the home team and the position of the scores corresponds to the
position of the teams. In this example you might calculate that Alabama
should beat Clemson by 15 to 20 points. To extend the concept further,
imagine that the following week Alabama plays Auburn, who beat Clemson earlier
in the season. That provides us with a longer thread as follows:
ALABAMA* - GEORGIA : 21 - 14
GEORGIA - WAKE FOREST* : 35 - 9
WAKE FOREST - CLEMSON* : 3 - 17
CLEMSON* - AUBURN : 10 -24
The first example could be called a 'Level 3' thread and the second a 'Level 4'
thread. The number of these threads will increase dramatically as the level
increases. There will also be an increase as the season progresses. Near the
end of a season a Level 7 search will uncover literally thousands of threads
for most conference games. Such a search may take considerable time if the
entire season is searched.
It should be evident that no predictions will be made for week one. Likewise
for week two, since the teams cannot have a like opponent until two games have
been played. The third week can be predicted at Level 3, the fourth week at
Level 5, and the fifth week at level 7. However, if data from a previous
season is used, predictions may be made from the first week onward.
INSTRUCTIONS
============
The Menu
The menu appears when the program is run by typing FBALL at the DOS prompt and
pressing the ENTER key. It looks like this:
1. List Teams
2. Display Current Card
3. Edit Current Card
4. Save Current Card to Disk
5. Predict Scores
6. Send Results to Printer
7. Input NEW LINE or Input SCORES
8. Get Game Stats from Database
9. Set Defaults
10. Exit to DOS
Enter the Number of your selection >_
To select from the menu, type a number from 1 to 10 and press ENTER. Item
number 7 will change depending on whether scores have been entered yet or not.
1. List Teams
This choice lists the teams to the screen. Team names must be spelled
exactly as they are listed in order to be recognized by the computer.
2. Display Current Card
The computer retains the current card exactly as entered. If the scores have
not yet been entered, the display consists of the two team names and the point
spread. Each team is numbered consecutively and the home team will be followed
by an asterisk. One game uses one line on the screen, and the point spread at
the far right on the line applies to the rightmost team on the line.
23. ALABAMA 24. GEORGIA* 5.5
The above line means that Alabama plays at Georgia and GIVES UP 5.5 points.
After scores have been entered, the line will change to look like this:
23. ALABAMA 21 24. GEORGIA* 14
3. Edit Current Card
If you make a mistake entering data, you can edit the card. In order to do
this, you must first know the number of the team on the card. If you want to
insert a game you must know where you want to insert it. Using this option,
you can insert, delete, or modify data on a game, but only on the current card.
4. Save Current Card to Disk
The card is saved automatically after entering the line, but if the card is
later changed you must re-save the data using this option. Similarly, the
database is updated after entering scores, but must be rewritten using this
option if the card is edited. If you edit but do not save the changes, you
will be warned when you choose option 10 (Exit to DOS).
5. Predict Scores
When you choose this option, you are asked to specify a search depth. Enter
a number from two to seven. A Level 3 search will take considerably less
time than a Level 7 search. Next, you may specify a date before which all
entries will be ignored. Finally, you are asked if you want to predict a
single game. If you answer no, the entire card will be predicted if possible.
If you answer yes, you must enter the number of the first team on the line of
the card. Although you can predict single games, you must still enter the
entire card each week in order to populate the database. As scores are being
predicted the team names will be displayed along with the current level being
processed.
6. Send Results to Printer
The results are printed from a disk file (PREDICT.TXT) and look like:
ILLINOIS over WISCONSIN + 12.5 by 5.00
This really means that Illinois is predicted to beat Wisconsin by 5 points
AFTER giving up 12.5 points. In other words, Illinois by 17.5 over Wisconsin.
In some cases the program produces output that looks like:
ILLINOIS over WISCONSIN + 12.5 by 5.00 [ 2.7]
The additional number in brackets to the right is a confidence factor which is
computed for the games if enough information is available. It actually
reflects the statistical variance of winning margins for all the threads used
in predicting the scores. The higher the number, the better.
The predictions can also be viewed on the screen by exiting the program and
TYPEing the file PREDICT.TXT or by loading the file into a text editor.
7. Input NEW LINE
The computer will prompt you with consecutive numbers to enter the team names,
and then a prompt for the point spread. The team names can be entered in
either upper or lower case but MUST be spelled as they are listed. If a name
is not recognized the computer will tell you that you have made an entry error.
One hundred college teams are listed and no others will be accepted. I have
attempted to be consistent in spelling the names. For instance, North is
always abbreviated N. and State is always ST. Common usage dictates the use of
LSU for Louisiana St. and Pitt for Pittsburgh, but Pennsylvania is not abbrev-
iated. Mark the home team with an asterisk (*) immediately following the team
name. When all of the games have been entered, type 'end' (without the quotes)
at the numbered prompt and press ENTER. If "Entry Error!" appears after a game
has been entered, either one of the teams was misspelled, not listed, or was
previously entered. On the IBM version only, typing "list" at the numbered
prompt will list the teams so that the correct spelling can be determined, and
then return to the entry mode.
Note: point spreads can be entered as negative numbers, but it is recommended
that entries be arranged with the underdogs on the right. This practice will
make the program output more readable and less confusing.
7(a). Input SCORES
After the line has been entered, menu item 7 will change to read 'Input SCORES'.
Predictions should be made after entering the line. After the games have been
played, the scores must be entered. The computer will prompt you with the team
name and you should enter that team's final score. Do not attempt to enter
scores unless ALL the scores are available for entry. After the scores are
entered, the database will be updated. You will be prompted for a date to put
on the records. NOTE: Only one date will be accepted for each card.
8. Get Game Stats from Database
The database contains the most recent game entered for each pair of teams.
Option 8 prompts you for the name of a team, and if an entry exists the
date, location, point spread, and final scores are displayed. The winning
team (against the spread) will be highlighted. The games will NOT be in
chronological order.
9.Set Defaults
Some of the factors used in calculating are temporarily modifiable. When this
option is specified, the current settings are displayed in parenthesis next to
the variable. Home team advantage may be set to any positive integer. Weight
refers to the relative importance of each Level. If weight is 1.00, each level
has the same influence. If it is 0.9 then level 3 is weighted at .9 of level 2
and level 4 is weighted at .9 of level 3, etc. (level 4 would thus be weighted
at .9 times .9 or .81 of level 2). You must decide whether the proximity of
level 2 is more important than the larger number of threads averaged at level
3 or 4. Weight may be set to any number between 0.65 and 1.50. The final
default setting is High Level to LIKEOPP.TXT. LIKEOPP.TXT is an ascii file
generated by the program that contains 'threads' like those shown at the
beginning of this .DOC file. Level 2 will list only like opponents and
previous meetings, whereas Level 7 could generate several hundred K of text for
a full card. Anything past Level 3 probably cannot be effectively analyzed by
hand. To view this information, you can exit to DOS and TYPE LIKEOPP.TXT or
load the file into a text editor.
10. Exit to DOS
Use this option to exit the FBALL program.
FILES ON THE DISK:
FBALL.DOC - This file.
FBALL.COM - The handicapper program.
FBALL.DAT - Index file to the games database. [demo - erase this
file to clear games]
TABLE.DAT - Games database file.
TEAMS.DAT - File of legal team names.
TICKET.DAT - File containing Current Card. [demo - erase]
LIKEOPP.TXT - File containing threads. [demo]
PREDICT.TXT - File containing predictions. [demo]
__________________________________________________________________________
THIS PROGRAM IS INTENDED FOR AMUSEMENT ONLY. NO CLAIMS ARE MADE AS TO ITS
ACCURACY AND THE AUTHOR IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES INCURRED THROUGH
USE OF THE PROGRAM.
__________________________________________________________________________